Weekend B.O. Brawl! Lion King 3D Still #1, Moneyball Edges Dolphin Tale For #2, Twilighter Taylor Lautners Abduction #4, De Niro/Statham/Owens Killer Elite #5

SATURDAY PM, 4THUPDATE: This has been ashifting-like-quicksandweekend for North American box office, with the Top2 order changing again as of Saturday night. Everyone agrees that Lion King 3D is No. 1 but Moneyball and Dolphin Tale are neck-and-neck for #2. Some studios are picking the baseball tale while others are choosing the maimed mammal. On Friday night,I also couldn’t get claritybecause ofRentrak hiccups during the day.Can’t we all just get along, especially whenI’m supposed to be on vacation? This order could change again Sunday morning, but for now: 1. Even Disney is surprised that its Lion King 3D is infirst place tonight from 2,330 theaters after its huge first-place finish last weekend. But rival studios tell me it got a boost Friday from the rain back East for a $6M Friday for an excellent hold. And another giantkiddie matinee bump on Saturday for as much as $9.5M. That’s a $22M weekend as well and only a modest -30% decline. This re-release is projected to hit a cume of as much as $61.5M by Monday. Here’s my question: Why is it that in all the promotional hype I’ve been sent by the studio about this pic, no one at Disney is thanking Jeffrey Katzenberg for micro-managing the original? C’mon, Mouse House, give credit where credit is due. Even if Jeffrey is a big pain in everyone’s ass. 2. Sony’s much-hyped newcomerMoneyball is now officially the best baseball-themed opening ever (Not accounting for inflation or higher ticket prices, it beat Benchwarmers’ $19.6M, The Rookie’s $16M, and A League Of Their Own‘s $13.7M.) It openedNo. 1 Friday with$6.7M and then soared +27% to $8.5M Saturday from 2,993 theaters. (As a Sony exec told me, “$6 million would be great. $7 million amazing. $8 million would be a triumph.”) With that healthy adult bump, it’s looking at a $21M weekend which is on target with the studio’s expectations. That solid number helps keep Brad Pitt’s star wattage shining and his awards chances climbing because ofthis well-reviewed male-centric sports movie that scored 94% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. (As Deadline Hollywood’s Awards columnist Pete Hammond opined out of the Toronto Film Festival: “This is a classic movie star role in the tradition of something that Robert Redford or Paul Newman would have done in their prime. He has never been better, and the movie is the best sports film since Bull Durham, a real triumph considering the long and winding road it took to get to the screen.”) Audiences really liked this pic: it received all A’s — male, female, young, old — from CinemaScore. But a rival studio exec points out thatalmost 60% of that audience was over age 50.Sonybelieves Moneyball could play strongly through the Fall generating a multiple that could very well exceed 4X and 5Xits opening. Marketingtargeted adult moviegoers and was designed to appeal to both men and women. Call me sexist, but I thought targeting women was hopeless for a picbased on the true story of Billy Beane who rebuilt theOakland As in 2002through computer-driven statistical analysis long ignored by the baseball establishment. This stuff makes my eyes glaze over, even though Michael Lewis wrote a great book about it and producer Rachael Horovitz recognized the bones of a great movie about it.To build awareness among men, Sony had a strong presence in sports programming, especially baseball where the campaign kicked off during the MLB All-Star Game in July.Trailers aired on the MLB Network, while spots also ran in high-profile NFL games including the season opener. In recent weeks, Moneyball‘s presence was in MLB games across FOX, ESPN, and TBS andselect NCAA football games.The TV campaigntook advantage of primetime premieres and high-impact specials, including the Emmys and MTV’s VMAs. On cable, Moneyball had sneak peeks onSons of Anarchy, Tosh.0, Conan and ESPN’s SportsCenter. To reach women, Sonybought spots on Dancing With the Stars and Glee while Pitt appeared on Ellen this week and was pretty much omnipresent as both producer and star. Like most movies these days,Moneyball had a twisted and tortured history to the big screen. Initially, baseball freak Steven Soderbergh was involved but passed because of other commitments. Eventually Sony brought in producer Michael De Luca to join Horovitz and, 5 years later in 2009, Soderbergh was back to direct. Butin a well-chrincled case of creative differences, the Oscar-winning director was jettisoned from the film just 72 hours before production was to begin when the studio changed its mind about his changes to Steven Zaillians adaptation. (Soderbergh’s primary addition included Reds-like testimonials from real-life players.) Conventional wisdom had it that the pic was a goner. But Pitt stayed on board throughout. The project really got back on track with executive producer Scott Rudinalong with screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, who did a polish on Zaillians script (both get credit now). Pitt himself credits director Bennett Miller (an Oscar nod for Capote first-time out), who replaced Soderbergh and then had the vision to “crack” the film’s outsider/insider themes by making an unconventionalfilm about them. 3. Very close behind is Alcon Entertainment’s Dolphin Tale distributed into 3,507 theaters by Warner Bros.It opened with $5.1M Friday and zoomed to $8.6MSaturday heading for a$20Mweekend.Alconexpectedthe heartstrings-pulling pic to jump 60% on Saturday because of the family film bump and did +70% more. Remember,it’s also playing in the most theaters.According toCinemaScores, parents and kidsaudiences are giving it an A+. “The film is very inspirational, and tracking is terrific.We will own the family marketplace,” an exec told me.Warner Bros was looking to give Moneyball a run for No. 1this weekend, but didn’t anticipate the continued strength of Lion King 3D. The strategy for Dolphin Tale was to reach primarily parents and kids with this real-lifestory andfine ensemble cast. The studiodevised a very long trailer campaign in order to get maximum exposurebeginning in April and playing through the summer on everything from Rio to Cars 2.The TV strategy wasrobust, covering everything from kids cable in late summer before school started, through key season premieres such as Dancing With The Stars and Biggest Loser,to a wide array of sponsorships with Discovery, Teen Nick, Lifetime, Nation Geographic, Disney XD, MTV, and more.Warner Bros crafted an aggressive word-of-mouth screening program that involved 3 full roundsin the top 60 markets. Military and home schoolers were targeted as well asyouth groups and other family-oriented orgs. The director and cast completed a 7-market PA tour that includeda junket to accommodate Winter, the real-life star of the film who had her ownlive Winter-cam.Online, there was afirst-time integration with the Spongebob Squarepants Facebook page given thesea theme. 4.Lionsgate’s Abduction in 3,118 theaters ended up with $3.8M Friday but went up +20% Saturday for $4.5m andan$11M opening for the weekend. (So it wasn’tfront-loaded like what happened to Zac Efron in Charlie St Cloud.)Through Sunday,Hollywood eyes have been focused onits starTaylor Lautner in his first leading man role in an action thrillerbecause he’s been very much in demand — presumably because of his enormous Twi-hard fan base and aggressive promotion of his films –but not because of any solo box office which the 19-year-old has done yet. Then again, I’velearned thatLautner’s $36M-budget action thriller was outspent 4-to-1 in marketing dollars by both Sony and Warner Bros leading up to this weekend. (Shame on Lionsgate’s Jon Feltheimer for tying everyone’s hands even after powerless Alli Shearmur pleaded.)So the jury is still out on whether this Twilight kid can open an envelope,especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one was directed by John Singleton. (“Silly” and “convoluted” were the words used most often to describe it.) Audiences didn’t think it was quite as bad as critics, giving it a B- CinemaScore.Too bad Lionsgate can’t seem to make a decent movie (Conan The Barbarian) or market one anymore (Warrior). An $11Moutcome is less than the $15M it appeared to be earlier Friday and not the$12M-$14M range which the studio told me it needed to show a “nice profit” for the film.”ButTaylors a great kid. Hes worked hard for us, doing about 8 national TV shows and endless amounts of press,” one of the execs said to me. “We know the opening weekend box office averages for Taylors Twilight co-stars, so this falls in the zone of what was to be expected. There are lots of movies opening this weekend to a variety of audiences, but ours is laser-targeted to tweens and we hope to dominate that market.”Lionsgatesimultaneously streamed the premiere to an additional 20 regional markets and broadcast the Red Carpet online as ‘The Abduction Fan Premiere Live Event’with 50M impressions.Media promotions included ABC Family andChannel One, the in-school network that reaches 2.3 million teens aged 1517.Other youth-focused exploitation includedan announcer spot for Tay-Tay at the VMAs (tied to a sweepstakes to ‘Get Abducted’ to the awards). It wasn’t nearly enough. 5. Open Road Film’s Killer Elite looks likeonly $9.5M for the weekend from 2,986 theaters. But when the veteran star trio of Robert DeNiro, Jason Statham, and Clive Owencan’t knock off Lautner solo in a lousy movie, that’s worth noting. The pic went upto only $3.7M on Saturday after its $3.3M debut Friday. CinemaScore was aB. I hear Open Roadacquired the film for nothing, only P&A, so it’ll be nicely profitable. Not bad for the company’s first release.A few notes about the Killer Elite marketing campaign: it had the predictablyheavy presence in sports including an ‘NFL on FOX’ TV promotion with a “Killer” prize of trip to LA to hang out with the Fox sports on-air guys, apromotion with Spike TV’s UFC Fight Night, and even Comedy Central’s Charlie Sheen Roast.De Niro made a rare late-night talk show appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live where he sat down with Kimmel’s security guard-turned celeb interviewer Guillermo. AndMTV Networks did a direct email campaign to target demos within their very largecustomer database. Here’s the rest of the Top 10: 6. Contagion (Participant/Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,136 Theaters] Friday $2.6M,Saturday $4.1M, Weekend $9M, Cume $57.5M 7. Drive (FilmDistrict) Week 2 [2,904 Theaters] Friday $1.8M (-50%),Saturday $2.4M, Weekend $6M, Cume $21.6M 8. The Help (Participant/DreamWorks/Disney] Week 7 [2,695 Theaters] Friday $1.3M,Saturday $2M,Weekend $4.5M, Cume $154.5M 9. Straw Dogs (Sony) Week 2 [2,408 Theaters] Friday $685K (-65%),Saturday $900K, Weekend $2.1M, Cume $8.5M 10. I Don’t Know How She Does It (Weinstein Co) Week 2 [2,490 Theaters] Friday $677K (-57%),Saturday $875K,Weekend $2M, Cume $8M FRIDAY 4 PM: On vacation. So box office is brought to you from a sunny climate where the palm trees sway in time to the dancing trade winds… But back home there’s a fierce fight going on. These are very early grosses, and my sources say Rentrak has been experiencing problems today — thus giving Hollywood even more Maalox moments than usual. Sony’s Moneyball starring Brad Pitt will be No. 1 with approx $8M Friday and possibly mid-$20sM for the weekend. That solid number helps Brad Pitt’s awards chances in this well-received male-centric sports movie. Right now Alcon Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Dolphin Tale and Lionsgate’s Abduction are battling for No. 2 with around $6M today and what could be high teens for the weekend. Interesting, because the heartstrings-pulling pic was tracking much better. Then again, Taylor Lautner’s action thriller is playing in 389 less theaters. So anyone who claimed this Twilight kid couldn’t open an envelope is wrong, wrong, wrong: there are major stars who would be thrilled with that outcome, especially in as rotten a reviewed movie as this one. Open Road’s Killer Elite looks a notch lower – maybe $5M today, and low teens for the weekend. Frequent updates coming with full analysis.

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